Date of Publication: 30 October 2023

One-Line Summary: To get to all-electric vehicles by 2050, the US needs to double its electricity supply.

Who did it: A group of researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, CO, USA.

What did they study: They used a computer model to calculate the most effective way to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from car, truck and plane travel by 2050.

What they found: Cutting US vehicle emissions by 80% would require a complete switchover to electric vehicles. They also found that switching to plug-in vehicles would require the US electrical grid* to supply almost double the amount of electricity currently used each year. As for planes, lowering their emissions would require a switchover to biofuels*, which means the US would have to double to triple the amount of biofuels currently produced each year.

Why does this matter: Cars, trucks and planes emit 28% of the greenhouse gases on Earth, so switching to electric and biofuel vehicles could reduce net CO₂ emissions by as much as one-quarter of the total. If we want to tackle global warming, changing the technology of transportation is a clear target and a potential winner.

What next: Realistically, switching over to electric vehicles will require a complete overhaul of the power sector*. If we want to make this happen sometime during the next 50 years, we need to start working towards increasing the capacity of the electrical grid now.

Our take: The study doesn’t touch on two important and related issues: 1. Where would the massive amounts of rare metals, such as nickel and lithium, needed for the construction of millions of new batteries for electrical vehicles will come from? 2. The electricity supply for most of the US electrical grid is generated by burning fossil fuels, therefore the proposed plan will also require a massive new source of green energy.

*The basics: The electrical grid is the infrastructure that provides electricity to homes and workplaces. Biofuels are petroleum-substitutes made from processed biological materials; ethanol made from corn is one example. The power sector is the portion of a country’s economy and infrastructure that is devoted to producing energy.

Who to talk to: Paige Jadun, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado (USA). e-mail: Paige.Jadun@nrel.gov

The paper: Hoehne, C., Muratori, M., Jadun, P., Bush, B., Yip, A., Ledna, C., Vimmerstedt, L., Podkaminer, K. and Ma, O., 2023. Exploring decarbonization pathways for USA passenger and freight mobility. Nature Communications, 14(1), p.6913.

Journal page: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42483-0

Keywords: power grid, biofuel, electric cars, green technology, transportation, greenhouse gases, airplane travel, commuting